Get Pumped.

so...we have the turn-in date for the final paper coming up and we have our presentations coming up.
It's going to be a stressful time, my fellow classmates.
Just remember the words of great IR mind, R.Kelly
"If I can see it then I can do it."
Cheers.

Reflection #10

Over Thanksgiving Break I returned to my small hometown on the Connecticut shoreline. It was great to see friends and family, but at the same time, it was a strange experience to be back with friends from high school who have almost no interest in international affairs and especially the current events in the Middle East. Both the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the controversy in Egypt over Presidents Morsi’s power have been in the news a lot, but my friends back home had no idea what was going on when I tried to talk to them about the issues or get their opinions. I take for granted how great it is to be at a university where so many people are interested in the same things as me and love discussing them. I found it sad that many of my old friends didn’t know what was going on and frankly did not care. It was frustrating to try to talk with them because they brushed off the issues with little thought. Being back home made me realize how many Americans, both young and old, don’t understand many of the issues in the MENA region. It seems like I’ve been spoiled at American with so many informed and interested people, and forgot that everyone else isn’t the same. I look forward to class on Thursday so we can discuss the developments in the region since we last met! 

Reflection #10- Hanna

OOO Morsi is being a trouble-maker.
I am very interested to see if this development will turn the new thought process of Prof. Hardig's friends in Lebanon once again.
The French Revolution and the Cuban Revolution, both had these same outcomes. A democratic revolution leads to the voting in of a popularly supported leader. Then power is centralized to protect the revolution and they become dictators too!
If we have seen this in history before, than why is it happening again. Why do people believe this revolution to be any different? From the reaction of the people, I am hoping that this will be different and that the people will revolt again and assure that they will not stand for centralized power.
We can see this going down two paths- Cuba or France.
If it goes down the path of Cuba, Morsi will become just another dictator. Egypt will continue to oppressed, if not further.
If it goes down the path of France, Morsi will still become a dictator. The hope of this though, is that it will not last. The mantra, "If at first we don't succeed, try try again." is fitting to the mentality in Egypt. This revolution has not been a 100% success but most never have been. Try Try Again. If the people keep pushing for complete democracy, then they will eventually recieve it, even if it takes some time.

Reflection

After doing the structured response this week, I was looking for an article to reflect on and found one about Twitter and what is being said about the battle between Hamas and Israel. On both sides, military operations are being tweeted in almost real time. The Israeli military began ‘live-tweeting’ and blogging about its military operations and Hamas has responded with its own tweets. On Wednesday, Israeli’s posted video footage of the air strike that killed Ahmed al-Jabari. Rather than hosting a press conference following this event, Israel formally announced the launch of Gaza operation on Twitter. Instead of distributing leaflets warning Palestinian civilians to stay away from areas where militants are firing, the military issued its warning via twitter, stating “We recommend no Hamas operatives, whether low level or senior leaders, show their faces above ground in the days ahead." Just as our readings for this week discussed, the world of social media is changing operations in the Middle East. The presence of social media is not only effecting revolutions, it is also working its way into how the military operates.  

Structured Response

I think that while the revolts would have occurred with or without social media outlets, the existence of these outlets shaped the Arab revolts of 2011 and made them more successful. I think Khondker’s idea of “cyber-civil society” is one of the best examples of how social media influenced the revolts. Since creating strong civil society groups is one of the main factors we’ve explored in creating a successful revolution, it is important to note that social media cites make organization and the spread of information much easier and more widely accessible. It has the ability to take unstructured grassroots organizations and give them a means of operation. They can explicitly state their goal and spread their message to a wider range of people, which, in the end, is the main goal of any organization: to reach and gain the support of as many people as possible.  Just the ability to spread information quickly and to many people has changed the way revolts occur. The images of Khaled Said being beaten to death in Egypt sparked angry and shock which resulted in more organization. Events that spark widespread shock or anger can now be used to organize a more structured uprising. The want and need for revolution is present, but the use of Facebook and Twitter to further these goals makes the revolts much more powerful and successful. 

Reflection # 9

There has been news recently that a leader for the Syrian Rebel Coalition has been chosen named Moaz Khatib. The new leader seemed to be a "flowery type" (according to various news sites)- sharing visions of peace and love, and one who believes strongly in his faith while not condemning other sects or religions. Hopefully this leader will turn the coalition into one that can eventually be aided more by the international community- states around the globe supporting the ousting of Assad have been wary to give the rebels any arms because they are worried they may end up in the wrong hands. Khatib gives me some hope that Syria can have a stable non-sectarian government after the fall of Assad. The fact that Khatib, who was protesting for a peaceful Democracy even before the Arab Spring, has been elected as the leader may be a good omen.
I am wondering though, knowing that the coalition is already starting to get much international support (namely by Hollande in France and by Obama's Administration) and Domestic support (now even by many of Assad's own sect, the Alawites), possibly they can overthrow Assad without the force of military, but by the force of legitimacy?
Maybe there is not even a need for the ousting or death of President Assad, once there is a well established transitional government. If the coalition becomes or even looks powerful enough (due to the bolstering of their image by the global state society or domestic civil society), that may be a tempting reason for Assad to go in exile to a friendly country like Iran or Russia. Yes, Assad has already lost plenty of legitimacy for causing the death of around 40,000 Syrians, but the rebel coalition also does not have much legitimacy still due to a lack of organization and possible radical Islamic fundamentalists within their military ranks. This battle, as of now, is indeed a battle over the image of strength- if the Rebels appear to have gotten their mess of an anti-government force cleaned up, much of the international community may send military aid to them in bundles. However, as long as the rebels look flimsy and divided, Russia and Iran will continue to arm Assad, giving them somewhat of an upper hand.

Structured Response- Jared

Social networks such as Twitter and Facebook, or "new media", as Habibul Haque Khondker calls it,  played a crucial role in the Arab Spring- they allowed for a quick spread of word about uprisings against Sultan authoritarians like Hosni Mubarak and Ben Ali.  As more and more people started to log on to social networks, the faster the idea of revolution jumped from country to country. A large factor in this spread of ideas was that "the images of Bouazizi", the man who lit himself on fire to protest the government,  "were put on Facebook and everyone saw it" (Khondker). In response to these outrageous photos, as Khondker stated, there were about "2 million users of Facebook" were logged on before the revolution in Tunisia. Furthermore, new media in Egypt was used to the advantage of citizens, who "[told] stories of police brutality, violence, and blatant injustice" (Khondker).

However, I do not believe that new media was necessary in starting the revolution. Rather I have concluded that the internet and other new forms of communication were helpful tools in speeding up the revolution process. In the Serbian revolutions against Slobodan Milosevic, "Otpor!" protestors against the government did not have the same access to new media as the Arab Springers did. Yet, Serbian citizens still managed to bring down their dictator and succeed in a change of government. Instead of using the internet or cell phones, Otpor relied on traditional protests, satirization of the government, dress, mobilization of both dissatisfied rural and city Serbian folk, the handing out of flyers, peaceful protest (until they burned a few government buildings down), and attempts at convincing the military to back down. Egypt and Tunisia, if new media were not present, would have still had the revolutions, but they would have been slower and possibly more violent. A key perk of new media was rapid global intelligence on the revolutions; the international community seemed to know right away about the massive protests, allowing for eventual global support of the revolutionaries. If relying on old media (newspapers, cable television, radio etc.), the news of revolution would have travelled to the global stage more gradually, allowing for possible violence by the Tunisian/Egyptian militaries without immediate condemnation by the international community.