Thursday, November 15, 2012

Reflection # 9

There has been news recently that a leader for the Syrian Rebel Coalition has been chosen named Moaz Khatib. The new leader seemed to be a "flowery type" (according to various news sites)- sharing visions of peace and love, and one who believes strongly in his faith while not condemning other sects or religions. Hopefully this leader will turn the coalition into one that can eventually be aided more by the international community- states around the globe supporting the ousting of Assad have been wary to give the rebels any arms because they are worried they may end up in the wrong hands. Khatib gives me some hope that Syria can have a stable non-sectarian government after the fall of Assad. The fact that Khatib, who was protesting for a peaceful Democracy even before the Arab Spring, has been elected as the leader may be a good omen.
I am wondering though, knowing that the coalition is already starting to get much international support (namely by Hollande in France and by Obama's Administration) and Domestic support (now even by many of Assad's own sect, the Alawites), possibly they can overthrow Assad without the force of military, but by the force of legitimacy?
Maybe there is not even a need for the ousting or death of President Assad, once there is a well established transitional government. If the coalition becomes or even looks powerful enough (due to the bolstering of their image by the global state society or domestic civil society), that may be a tempting reason for Assad to go in exile to a friendly country like Iran or Russia. Yes, Assad has already lost plenty of legitimacy for causing the death of around 40,000 Syrians, but the rebel coalition also does not have much legitimacy still due to a lack of organization and possible radical Islamic fundamentalists within their military ranks. This battle, as of now, is indeed a battle over the image of strength- if the Rebels appear to have gotten their mess of an anti-government force cleaned up, much of the international community may send military aid to them in bundles. However, as long as the rebels look flimsy and divided, Russia and Iran will continue to arm Assad, giving them somewhat of an upper hand.

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